Can Curt Cignetti right the ship of Indiana football in year 1? What will that look like?

These seem to be the most common questions surrounding the 2024 Indiana Hoosiers as Cignetti is entering his first year at Indiana with a complete overhaul of the team. This includes almost every coaching spot, and the 31 transfers brought in since the moment he stepped foot in Bloomington.

Indiana comes into the 2024 season picked to finish 17th of 18 in the Big Ten. After a 3-9 2023 season that led to former head coach Tom Allen being fired, there are still a lot of questions surrounding Indiana with year one of Cignetti.

Did the Hoosiers find their guy at Quarterback in Kurtis Rourke? Will there be immediate success? Can this Hoosiers team make their first Bowl Game since 2020?

Fall camp is underway as Week One rapidly approaches on the College Football season, so let’s take a look at the 2024 Indiana football schedule.

Prediction: Win (1-0)

FIU plays in arguably the weakest conference in College football with Conference USA. The Panthers went 4-8 in 2023, however HC Mike MacIntyre is returning 11 starters for this upcoming season. Considering all of the turnover that the Hoosiers have, I would say there are no games to be overlooked, however Indiana should be able to take care of business in the season opener at home.

Indiana’s offense on-paper has weapons that should be able to torch the Panthers defense, and although the Indiana home crowd is very underwhelming, I could imagine the opener will have good attendance with everything new happening this season.

Prediction: Win (2-0)

There is something that warms the heart with Friday Night Lights between a Big Ten school and an FCS school. For the second straight season Indiana will have a Week two game against an FCS opponent on a Friday night. The Leathernecks are going through lots of transition with first year HC Joe Davis taking over, as well as a conference change moving from the Missouri Valley Conference, to the Big South-OVC.

Western Illinois has lost 24 consecutive games and gone 4-47 over the last five seasons. Now the Leathernecks did win the lone matchup against the Hoosiers in 2012 (27-17), but I feel this may be a bit of a blowout in favor of Indiana this time around. Indiana will have a confident start heading into their first conference game.

Prediction: Win (3-0)

What a way to open up Big Ten play for Indiana. Playing at a stadium that they haven’t played at since the 1968 Rose Bowl where they lost 14-3 to USC. Similar to Indiana, the Bruins are undergoing a coaching change as DeShaun Foster enters his first year after being promoted from the running back coach at UCLA.

With Sophomore QB Dante Moore transferring out to Oregon, it will be Ethan Garbers likely in the starting role for the Bruins after starting six games in 2023. This will be a very interesting matchup as UCLA returns TJ Harden to the backfield, but lost Carson Steele to the NFL. The tandem combined for over 1600 yards and 14 touchdowns on around five yards per carry in 2023.

With former UCLA HC Chip Kelly taking the OC role at Ohio State, there is going to be some speed bumps for the Bruins to succeed early. UCLA will also be coming off a Week two bye which normally would favor a team, however with it coming so early I feel this squad will lack cohesiveness early on with all the changes.

Curt Cignetti will get his first marquee win at Indiana advancing to 1-0 in the Big Ten, and in his words about playing at such a historic event, “We’re going to an old stadium to kick someone’s ass.”

Prediction: Win (4-0)

Indiana has not gone 4-0 since 2020…so why this year? A very favorable non-conference schedule SHOULD be three wins for the Hoosiers in the first four weeks, and I went out on a limb and said Indiana would get the upset win in the West Coast.

Charlotte was consistently picked in the bottom two spots in the preseason AAC poll, which may not mean a whole lot when the season is set and done, but the 49ers have two tough road non-con games with UNC on September 7th, and Indiana on Week Four. If my predictions are right up to this point, Memorial Stadium should be fairly raucous as the culture looks to be changed through the first third of the season.

The back stretch of the Hoosiers season is quite tough, so I gave them some leeway to start.

Prediction: Half (5-0 or 4-1)

With the state of Indiana football heading into the season, as well as many of the Big Ten teams, there are a handful of games that I’ll just have to sit on the fence for. The Big Ten home opener for the Hoosiers is one of them as the Terrapins have Indiana’s number the past three seasons.

This one is especially tough because Maryland HC Mike Locksley has proven he can get it done after winning three consecutive bowl games. The biggest question for the Terps is at QB as Big Ten record holder Taulia Tagovailoa is gone and according to Locksley it’s a three-headed race for the starting role.

If Maryland can figure out the most important position in due time, then they could cause some problems for the Hoosiers because they have a good returning core on the defensive side which helped the 8-5 record last season.

Now with Indiana, if they are 4-0 heading into this one the confidence will be high and a 5-0 start could have strong odds to push into the Top-25 for the first time since the start of the 2021 season.

Prediction: Loss (5-1 or 4-2)

There is a very strange situation in Evanston this season as Ryan Field goes through its renovations. Most of the Wildcats home games will be played at Lanny and Sharon Martin Lakeside Facility, which is the usual practice field for the football team. The game against Indiana will be there, and weather will certainly play a factor.

This venue is right on Lake Michigan so expecting large gusts of wind, an intimate environment, and probably a low-scoring slug fest in typical Big Ten fashion. Northwestern shocked the conference in 2023 going 8-5 with a Las Vegas Bowl win as David Braun took over the program.

The Wildcats return 88% of their defense which ranks first in the Big Ten, while overall returnees ranks fourth in the conference. I feel Indiana’s offense will struggle with the weather situation, along with the fact that Northwestern is a sneaky team that closed out 2023 winning four straight.

Prediction: Half (6-1, 5-2, or 4-3)

This is the only other ‘half’ game that I will be using for these predictions. I do feel this may be the most important game of the season when it is all said in done, simply because of the momentum built for the home stretch.

Nebraskas is in a very weird scenario as it looks like true Freshman QB Dylan Raiola may get the starting nod. He absolutely has the talent to be a productive Big Ten QB, it’s more of a matter of how quickly he can become what his ratings say he is. Raiola was the top rated QB in the 2024 recruiting class and has been heavily sought after since the moment he began his High School career.

Indiana is coming off a much needed bye week after playing six consecutive weeks and coming off what I think is a loss in Evanston against Northwestern. Nebraska is also coming off a bye week where their first six weeks look favorable as well, even with the home game against rival Colorado.

HC of the Huskers Matt Rhule likely has a sour taste after going 5-7 in his debut season, and this one against Indiana could send Nebraska bowling if the cards are played right. Although it is lofty, there is also a chance in my predictions that Indiana finds themselves in a bowl game with a win so this point in the year should still bring a good atmosphere to Bloomington. Something that has not been seen this late into a season in quite a while.

Because there are two ‘half’ games, there will be three record possibilities moving forward.

Prediction: Loss (6-2, 5-3, or 4-4)

The gauntlet part of the season begins in Week Nine for Indiana. The wheels could also very much be falling off the wagon after such a good start as Indiana hosts last seasons runner-up Washington.

The Huskies seemed to have made a splash HC hire to fill the shoes of Kalen DeBoer as Jedd Fisch, who led Arizona to a 10-3 record in 2023, takes over in Seattle. Washington will be better than their 10th place Big Ten prediction I imagine as they have the assets to reload including the 11th ranked transfer class in the country.

Washington is also hungry to prove it was not a one-hit wonder and no I do not think they will go to the CFP, but this is a formidable team that will be too much for Cignetti and the Hoosiers to handle at home. Indiana is coming off what is likely going to be an emotional game whether win or loss against Nebraska, and the Huskies will exploit that with a quick kick in the mouth.

Prediction: Loss (6-3, 5-4, or 4-5)

These road Big Ten games are going to be no joke for Indiana, and yes the Spartans are not a highly picked team, but they could sneak up on some teams and will pose a challenge for this very new Hoosiers squad.

HC Jonathan Smith will be making his Big Ten debut this year after taking the MSU job and bringing a hefty load of Oregon State players along with him. Michigan State has the 12th ranked transfer class in the country as both of these teams are in a completely new look style of play.

Indiana could find themselves in quite a hole with the unknown of this team and could be slipping out of bowl contention slowly if things go very south.

The Old Brass Spittoon will remain in East Lansing for another season, and depending on the ‘half’ games a narrative could start to arise around the program.

Prediction: Loss (6-4, 5-5. or 4-6)

I think this goes without saying that playing the defending national champions is going to be a tall task to come away with a win. Yes, Michigan looks very different with lots of roster turnover, but the assets are still there and key players are still repping the Blue and Gold.

This will not look like last years massacre in Ann Arbor where Michigan beat Indiana 52-7. This will be more competitive and I would not be surprised if ultimately this game comes down to a few plays down the stretch.

If this is the Hoosiers sixth loss of the year then things will be looking very bleak after all of the preseason talk, however, sitting at 5-5 and a competitive loss to Michigan should hold onto some optimism for the Hoosier faithful.

Prediction: Loss (6-5, 5-6, or 4-7)

Ohio State has arguably the best roster in the entire country and will be playing for vengeance the entire season…no matter the opponent. There is already a buzz that it’s ‘natty or bust’ in Columbus so Indiana is just another thing in the way as the Hoosiers are on the road in the second to last week of the season.

If Indiana is losers of 7 straight, the season will be over after rivalry weekend and it’s once again back to the drawing board. No, major coaching changes will not happen after one year, but the ability to generate momentum will definitely be on hold.

This stretch for the Hoosiers is going to be difficult, and if they can head into the finale still in bowl contention, then the struggles can be overlooked.

Prediction: Win (7-5, 6-6, or 5-7)

It all comes down to the Old Oaken Bucket Game…possibly. Indiana will get the trophy back for the first time since 2019, and win in Bloomington for the first time since 2016.

Offensively Purdue is going to have some gaps at wideout and there is a lot of unknown with QB Hudson Card going into year two with the Boilermakers. Indiana has more talent outside and Kurtis Rourke has proven his ability at QB in his career thus far.

If this game can send Indiana bowling, I’d expect one of the better crowds all season long, even with a losing streak.

Year one of HC Curt Cignetti will likely spark a change in both the culture and the winning abilities within Indiana football.

It won’t look perfect at times but there will be flashes of where this team can be in a few short seasons. The floor I have Indiana at is 5-7 with a ceiling of 7-5. Now there are factors that could have Indiana spiraling out of control going 4-8 while also shocking the CFB world and going 8-4. I’d say the latter may be more unrealistic to the history of Indiana football, but the beauty of College sports and sports in general is the underdog story.

I am fairly confident that Indiana will pick up three Big Ten wins along with the three non-conference win to go to their first bowl game since the 2020 season. Depending on the matchup the Hoosiers could pick up their first bowl win since the 1991 season.

This can be a cornerstone year for Indiana considering the nature in which College football is ran by transfers and NIL. Cignetti wants to be the best, and if he can do things with this program that have not been done in decades, the possibilities really start to open up.