Indiana’s population will grow by nearly 383,000 residents by 2060, new projections from the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business show.
The projections, which are the first after the most recent U.S. Census in 2020, show a 5.6% increase over the 40-year period, which is a significant slowing in the state's growth.
“To underscore how swift and severe this change will be: Indiana’s total population growth over the next 40 years is projected to be lower than the state’s growth between 2000 and 2010,” said Matt Kinghorn, senior demographer for the Indiana Business Research Center.
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Indiana's population is expected to climb from 6.79 million in 2020 to 7.17 million in 2060, however most of the growth is projected to occur before 2030. Kinghorn attributed the state's baby boom generation as part of the reason.
“To some degree, this trend was always inevitable,” Kinghorn said. "Indiana was sure to see a substantial decline in the natural increase, and with it, a slowdown in population growth.”
Another reason—a drastic decrease in Indiana's birthrate, and, conversly, an increase in the mortality rate for people age 25 to 54.
The preliminary total of 79,000 births in 2023 represents a 12% decline compared to 2007, making it the third-lowest annual tally in the state since 1946. The 2023 fertility rate of 58.9 is also Indiana’s lowest mark on record.
When it comes to life expectancy, Indiana's mark peaked in 2010 and has been in a decline ever since. Indiana’s mortality rate for people age 25 to 54 increased by 24%, from 231.1 per 100,000 residents in 1998 to 287.3 per 100,000 residents in 2019.
“Our projections show sharp decline in natural increase over the next 40 years and that the state will begin to see a natural decrease of the population — with deaths outnumbering births — beginning in the 2040s,” Kinghorn said. “In-migration will become Indiana’s sole source of growth.”
Kinghorn said after this period, most of the state's growth will come from people moving to Indiana, rather than new Hoosier births.
Indiana saw a population increase of nearly 30-thousand people in 2023, according to research from the Indiana Business Research Center. The research found that the Hoosier State added 29,925 residents in 2023, pushing the state population to 6.86 million.
Most of the growth is attributed to heavily-populated areas of the state, but the research showed a rise in people moving to the rural areas.
17,807 people moved to the Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood metro area in 2023, accounting for 60% of Indiana’s net growth last year. The new research found that 2.14 million people, or 31% of the state’s population live in the Indy metro area.
